This is a letter that was published in the Star in 2006. I know the writing is clunky and bad, but what I remember best is that no one gave much of a damn about oil prices at that time, I especially like the last paragraph I wrote then….
If you have not heard of Peak oil, it is the
assumption that the world has crossed the 50% mark in
terms oil reserves used, and that the price of oil
will continue to increase because it becomes more
difficult and costly to extract oil from half or more
empty reserves and maintain present supply levels.
There are as many proponents as opponents to this
theory, and each could be equally wrong. Viewed solely
as an impending energy crisis, Peak oil is not as
cataclysmic as many believe, but when viewed together
with the expected rise in oil demand from BRIC i.e.
China, India and other rising super economies, as well
as the incredible dependence of mankind to this
commodity not just in producing energy but as a raw
product in the manufacture of plastics and a whole
slew of chemicals, maybe we should start paying a bit
more attention to the questions being asked.
Economists believe that the law of necessity and
supply and demand will force mankind to find ways
around this crisis. If we consider that Petronas has
established oil reserves for another 12 years and
natural gas for another 30, whither will prices go
when the government can no longer afford subsidies?
How will all the machinery, engines, generators,
manufacturing processes that depend on oil or its by
products be modified efficiently enough that we don’t
feel the pinch too much? Some might say the answer is
as simple as conserving energy and making choices like
switching to hybrid cars. But the amount of energy/oil
used in manufacturing a car is far greater than the
amount of oil the car will use throughout its
lifetime; the very act of buying a car means you have
used vast resources of energy before even driving it
for the first time. Mankind’s ability to produce
grains and other foods at present quantities also
depends on the use of machinery and economies of scale
and the cheap supply of oil.
The most precious commodity of the future will be
fresh water, and the only way to ensure that will be
through technologies that convert polluted water or
seawater into potable water. This will also be
extremely energy dependent. What price water then, and
will we fight wars for water again?
We have coupled our progress as a species the past 100
odd years with the ready and cheap supply of oil, to
find and adopt alternatives might be a little too late
already. When we are over dependent on a single
commodity, as we are today on oil, we should have the
sense to really ensure that our survival will not be
affected by the rising scarcity of that commodity,
Brings to mind the words Ireland and potatoes,
remember what happened then?
Nov 27, 2006
Jeevindra Kumar
